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I would go with 2 1/2 yards. You'll have a bit left over.
9 patch was also my 1st quilt. I think your colors are awesome. The center of the 9 patch being those splashes of paisley and bright colors, it's gorgeous.
If you do go with flannel, wash it in warm water and dry it on high before you sew it together. Flannel is notorious for mis-shaping after the first wash, and could really screw up your quilt.
Also, with all the Christmas sales, you may be able to find yourself a nice flannel sheet set for a decent price. I saw twin sets at K-Mart today for $9.99. I've found the flannel sheets to be so easy to work with, but again, make sure you wash and dry them first!
Good luck! Be sure to post the finished project!!
Em