MJ's little flock

[Ribh]

The rooster at the back of this picture is I am told 12 years old.
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The high street of a nearby town.
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A traditional farm house a way down the track here.View attachment 2415963

That all looks like a rather nice place to live, Shad. Not too hectic, even in town.

 

[MaryJanet]

And I guess the question is, did she get home schooled to that qualification or did you send her to mechanic school?

She was homeschooled by Peggy, who used her imagination and intimidation to teach Ivy how to look at brakes. That's why I take the car to a formally qualified car mechanic.

Ivy says "I do so know about brakes!! Peggy says I do know about them!"

I know she did Ivy. It's not you, it's me.

 

[Ribh]

I know SA Health is doing genomic testing on samples in order to trace the virus through the community. The strain we're avoiding (or not spreading) in this new lockdown is a fast little devil, incubating within a day, infectious for two. So a six day lockdown will be an effective measure if people comply.

Supermarkets will be open 24 hours (never in SA's history have we had all supermarkets open 24 hours). That's to allow for covid safe shopping. I'm allowed to leave my home once a day for groceries, covid testing, if I have a medical emergency, taking Peggy to Dr Mark etc, but some things are not allowed eg exercising outside, so I'm glad I had a beachwalk yesterday morning! Work is shut down completely, we're on fully paid leave. It's a surprise holiday and I'm determined to enjoy myself in spite of restrictions. I may do ALL my jigsaw puzzles or something like that.

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Are you allowed to exercise outside in your own back yard? I ask because my mum couldn't even do that @ one point, which I thought was completely ridiculous!

 

[MaryJanet]

Some sense in the madness.
I know you said some tests Bob but it is woth bearing in mind that some of the untested and uproven tests are not even managing a 50% hit rate. That's no better than chance.
If you apply some statistical analysis to the few test results there are their reliability isn't much past coin toss in many instances.
For those that are interested it is worth reading a bit on statistical analysis just to see what percentages are required for a particular level of doubt.
Unfortunately many of the journalists and the politicians who either do not have a decent grasp of science, or have a particular agenda to propmote are misleadinng the public.
My current favorite is the recent euphoric reporting of successful vaccine development. It takes years to gather enough data to judge how effective such vaccines are. Then there is the knotty problem of will they be effective at slowing Covid if a large percentage of the population don't take the vaccine. All assumes of course that the virus the vaccine is for doesn't mutate.
I could bang on for hours. Sorry people. I'll shut up now.

Coincidentally I had a stats refresher last Thursday. People kept coming to me for advice on which tests to run so I took an opportunity to review the basics in an Australia-wide online tutorial. There were 463 of us cracking stats jokes in the chat while the teacher presented her review of the basics and of the most frequently used tests. It was both very reassuring wrt what I thought I knew and it filled in a few missing pieces for me. A very well-spent 90 minutes.

 

[MaryJanet]

Are you allowed to exercise outside in your own back yard? I ask because my mum couldn't even do that @ one point, which I thought was completely ridiculous!

I don't know and I've read every word the public health team put out, so I'm going with "it's not banned at this time" but if people start doing covid-risky things while exercising I'm sure the team would ban it too. This is a "greater good" moment and not the time to rock the boat.

The thing that bites me is that I'm chairing a research conference that starts Thursday next week and I've been put on leave. Yikes!!! So i may do a few sneaky tasks online even though I'm not really supposed to. The conference is fully online. But I'm wondering whether we should postpone it. It's had national press through the professional society so cancelling it would not be good. But i am under government orders to not work so I don't know what to do

 

[Ribh]

I don't know and I've read every word the public health team put out, so I'm going with "it's not banned at this time" but if people start doing covid-risky things while exercising I'm sure the team would ban it too. This is a "greater good" moment and not the time to rock the boat.

The thing that bites me is that I'm chairing a research conference that starts Thursday next week and I've been put on leave. Yikes!!! So i may do a few sneaky tasks online even though I'm not really supposed to. The conference is fully online. But I'm wondering whether we should postpone it. It's had national press through the professional society so cancelling it would not be good. But i am under government orders to not work so I don't know what to do

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This is what I hate: putting people between a rock & a hard place. You're a smart lady. I'm sure you'll figure it out.

 

[MaryJanet]

I am amazed you were able to get this diagnosed. Thank you for sharing. This (fatty liver) is precisely what killed Bagheera, whose liver hemorrhaged. I’m so glad you found it before it’s too late.

I'm lucky that we have access to Dr Mark who seems to be at the top of his game. It's only a 90 minute round trip and his expertise is worth it.

 

[MaryJanet]

Good evening MJ and all



Oh no MJ, just be safe

Good evening folks

Stay safe MJ...

I'm risk-averse so will be perfectly safe in my comfy home

 

[MaryJanet]

I could go on and on about the quality of the lab tests. I will give you the short version. Some things to always remember about lab testing.

1. No lab test alone is diagnostic. Lab tests are one piece of the puzzle when it comes to diagnosing. With COVID we are using lab tests as definitive and they simply are not.
2. There is always a % error on every lab test.
3. It takes years of testing to produce a lab test where the % error is less than 10%

Where are we today?

1. There have been many tests that have been produced that have been utilized since COVID started that have since shown to have less than 50% specificity and/or sensitivity. My company aproduced one that was so bad the FDA eventually forced us to pull it from the market in the US. We made millions on it but it was awful.
2. Most of the tests on the market are now showing no better than 70% sensitivity and or specificity.
3. Sensitivity and Specificity are required to be listed in the package insert of all lab testing reagents, etc. The package insert for my company's current rapid test includes no such information because it is being sold under emergency use authorization. That permits the test to be sold without complete studies on its effectiveness. All of these tests are being sold in this fashion.
4. For example, Elon Musk recently had cold symptoms. He was concerned so he got a rapid COVID test. He wound up having the same test done 4 times. Twice it was negative, Twice it was positive. Does he have COVID?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/musk-says-took-four-covid-060205013.html

Despite the constant endorsement of public health to get tested and then rely on that result as gospel, it is not good medical practice to do so. Our package insert says as much.

I would suggest that one should ever get tested without symptoms. The test alone is not reliable to an extent that I believe you can trust it. There needs to be physical symptoms to pair with it.

This is my opinion based upon the facts as I know them. Please do what you feel is best and I would never tell you to ignore the reccomendations of your public health department.

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The way tests are done here is that I would take myself to a drive through testing clinic and join the queue. As people's tests are done, the cars move forward.

The testing is managed by the folks in the Department of Health who know all about test efficacy and are responsible for ensuring public safety, so maybe the samples are triple tested or something like that to reduce the incidence of false positives and negatives. I know for sure they're doing genomic testing to tell the strains apart. I'm confident we South Aussies are implementing best practice via our health experts. Nicola Spurrier is our health leader and she's made excellent decisions so far. The politicians are staying out of her way and even lending their support, so even they have stepped up their game.

 

[Ribh]

Are you chicken taxing too?