Perspective about coronavirus

[JaeG]

Covid-19 is not the flu. It has a greater transmission rate than the flu, approximately double at this stage. With the flu you will have symptoms within 72 hours. With Covid-19 you can be carrying it around for up to 10 days before symptoms become apparent. There are many articles comparing Covid-19 with other outbreaks of disease. If it was a strain of the flu older people would have more immunity to it as we saw with the H1N1 outbreak. The rate of those requiring hospitalisation for the flu is 2%. For Covid-19 it is 19%. Fatalities from Covid-19 far exceed those from the flu.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/18/21184992/coronavirus-covid-19-flu-comparison-chart
I agree we don't need to panic but neither should it be downplayed. Everyone needs to be doing as much as humanly possible to avoid spreading it to the most vulnerable members of our communities. Health systems are stretched as it is.

 

[WhyDoILikeChickens]

Covid-19 is not the flu. It has a greater transmission rate than the flu, approximately double at this stage. With the flu you will have symptoms within 72 hours. With Covid-19 you can be carrying it around for up to 10 days before symptoms become apparent. There are many articles comparing Covid-19 with other outbreaks of disease. If it was a strain of the flu older people would have more immunity to it as we saw with the H1N1 outbreak. The rate of those requiring hospitalisation for the flu is 2%. For Covid-19 it is 19%. Fatalities from Covid-19 far exceed those from the flu.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/18/21184992/coronavirus-covid-19-flu-comparison-chart
I agree we don't need to panic but neither should it be downplayed. Everyone needs to be doing as much as humanly possible to avoid spreading it to the most vulnerable members of our communities. Health systems are stretched as it is.

I agree with a lot of what you said except for hospitalization rate. This virus is spread by asymptomatic people who never even got sick. Chances are several of us have it just some immunities to it and never feel a thing while spreading it. So the actual infection rate is much greater than known, which would reduce hospitalizations and fatality percentage. I think S. Korea or Taiwan have done widespread testing and their fatality rate is under 1%.

 

[JaeG]

I agree with a lot of what you said except for hospitalization rate. This virus is spread by asymptomatic people who never even got sick. Chances are several of us have it just some immunities to it and never feel a thing while spreading it. So the actual infection rate is much greater than known, which would reduce hospitalizations and fatality percentage. I think S. Korea or Taiwan have done widespread testing and their fatality rate is under 1%.

Singapore was set up for the next epidemic with hospitals built specifically to isolate those infected. That's the reason for their low rate of deaths. Anyone with symptoms was isolated in hospital no matter how mild. This stopped the spread. Those who were tested because of exposure had to self isolate with severe consequences if they were found to be breaching this (Taiwan was the same). Their response to tracking cases has also been a major factor in their ability to contain the spread of the disease. Other countries, such as poor Italy, have had horrendous numbers of fatalities, but Italy has the second oldest population (on average) so their citizens are automatically at greater risk from Covid-19.

 

[Egghead_Jr]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
It most certainly needs to be downplayed. Statistics are being generated with false assumptions. Percentages can not be expressed if you don't test. Case in point is Vermont conducted 620 something tests. 29 tested positive. They are not testing anymore yet that number of only 620 cases will stay as statistical point as the number of deaths grows. If you look at different countries you'll note a similar trend. No more testing of positive cases, only the death toll rises which obviously makes for data presented on completely false resource.

My comparing to the flu was not how the virus is akin to it on a fundamental level becausewe know it's a common cold virus. My comparison was to how many deaths there will be, how it's spread and so forth. Let's just be very clear- it's a cold virus that attacks the lungs.

Entire states are closing "non essential business" to slow the spread. It doesn't stop spread merely slows it. The reason to slow spread is to not overwhelm healthcare with every person with a cough looking for treatment. It's the over play, over reaction, over the top knee jerk bull going on that causes people to panic and behave poorly. So every person that would be infected is still being infected only our school system, entertainment business and entire summer fun will be forfeit in an effort to slow the spread and not cause panic. This is the exact philosophy as making war for peace. The end result is all will have contact, the same will be severely affected, same number will die but it will be spread out for six months instead of ten weeks.

Constitutional rights and my right to use a personal refillable coffee cup at the gas station are being taken from us. My sons summer will be without beaches, movies, amusement parks and anything that requires more than ten people at a time. Yet to date not one fatality under the age of 10. The flu is on average 0.1% fatal, that's 1 in 1000 infected. Even using flawed data this cold virus is 0.2% for teenagers, people in 20's and thirty something. 0.4% 40-49. And as with the flu the fatality increases dramatically every decade of age from there. So let's ensure our children get an even worse education in 2020 than normal and have no outlet of popular entertainment. Sounds sane to me.

 

[centrarchid]

The scientists / medical professionals need to be the sources of the info, not folks with vested interest or an attitude. Let us come back to this thread in a month and again in the fall to compare what has been predicted by various models to what comes to be. So far the models have been pretty good. Let time tell.

 

[Criticalicious]

I would much rather give up one season at the beach and my freedom to refill a coffee cup for the privilege to not help kill millions of people. A vaccine is being tested as we speak, and our healthcare systems need time to ramp up to respond to people who have serious complications.

If this had been quarantined when fewer than 100 people had it, then we wouldn't be in this mess. States and countries that went on lockdown earlier are seeing significantly fewer cases and fewer deaths than those that waited. One family of 7 lost half their members after a family dinner.

If you ask the scientists who are working on this pandemic, they will tell you that we aren't reacting ENOUGH. Please stay home, avoid contact and wash your hands.

This website has real statistics. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[Egghead_Jr]

The scientists / medical professionals need to be the sources of the info, not folks with vested interest or an attitude. Let us come back to this thread in a month and again in the fall to compare what has been predicted by various models to what comes to be. So far the models have been pretty good. Let time tell.

Which models do you speak of? None I've seen have been accurate. Again this is due to models being published based on incomplete data.

A way to cut through misinformation and visually see true data is to look at closed populations. There are several closed populations in the world you can look at. Liechtenstein is a prime example with normal age demographic. Other small world populations can be studied for accurate modeling. Cruise ships are a good place to model also. The Princess Cruise passengers will be released from 14 day quarantine tomorrow. 3500 passengers and crew, of those submitting to testing 7 were positive with no symptoms. A couple in 80's refused testing and have had temperature monitored twice daily with no elevation. One passenger died. This model equates to 1/3500 fatality rate. 30/3500 known infected of which 7 show no symptoms- meaning the infection rate is higher than that due to voluntary testing. Liechtenstein, a string of villages in the Alps with population of 38,000 has 37 showing symptoms and testing positive, no fatality.

A skewed demographic, retirement area, of small population is San Marino. Population 33,000, 20 fatalities. Italy's demographic for age over 65 is over 1 in 5 people.

Being a mathematician gives me an advantage to see models and find faults with ease. To see skewed data, false representation and agenda in a graph. You will not see the fatality rate in this outbreak of 2020 in the USA that has already occurred this year from the flu. From October 2019 to this March over 23,000 fatalities. Some estimates are as high as 53,000.

That's to put it in perspective.

 

[centrarchid]

Which models do you speak of? None I've seen have been accurate. Again this is due to models being published based on incomplete data.

A way to cut through misinformation and visually see true data is to look at closed populations. There are several closed populations in the world you can look at. Liechtenstein is a prime example with normal age demographic. Other small world populations can be studied for accurate modeling. Cruise ships are a good place to model also. The Princess Cruise passengers will be released from 14 day quarantine tomorrow. 3500 passengers and crew, of those submitting to testing 7 were positive with no symptoms. A couple in 80's refused testing and have had temperature monitored twice daily with no elevation. One passenger died. This model equates to 1/3500 fatality rate. 30/3500 known infected of which 7 show no symptoms- meaning the infection rate is higher than that due to voluntary testing. Liechtenstein, a string of villages in the Alps with population of 38,000 has 37 showing symptoms and testing positive, no fatality.

A skewed demographic, retirement area, of small population is San Marino. Population 33,000, 20 fatalities. Italy's demographic for age over 65 is over 1 in 5 people.

Being a mathematician gives me an advantage to see models and find faults with ease. To see skewed data, false representation and agenda in a graph. You will not see the fatality rate in this outbreak of 2020 in the USA that has already occurred this year from the flu. From October 2019 to this March over 23,000 fatalities. Some estimates are as high as 53,000.

That's to put it in perspective.

I am not impressed with your perspective as you appear what you want to see as if seeing the world through a filtered component of media. Time will tell.

 

[drumstick diva]

Thank goodness I don't drink coffee (tea etc). I don't care if I can't refill a refillable cup. I drink at home - skim milk, water, Caffeine free - diet coke, should note: skim milk with chocolate malt ovaltine powder.

Got out of Chicago over 50 years ago don't miss it at all. The disease at that time was the street violence with more people killed in a month, than the death total from killings in the Middle East etc.

 

[centrarchid]

Thank goodness I don't drink coffee (tea etc). I don't care if I can't refill a refillable cup. I drink at home - skim milk, water, Caffeine free - diet coke, should note: skim milk with chocolate malt ovaltine powder.

Got out of Chicago over 50 years ago don't miss it at all. The disease at that time was the street violence with more people killed in a month, than the death total from killings in the Middle East etc.

Be prepared to see something yet again outside your experience.