Republican Debate?

[Boyd]

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X2 I think Q9 should run for president, when he's older of course. Over 36.

we gotta wait another 25 years then...

 

[AquaEyes]

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I don't dismiss the power of belief to affect people's behavior. However, if you make POLICY based on belief that CONTRADICTS EVIDENCE, then you're going to find out how wrong the belief was -- and so will everyone else, if your policy affects other people.

The Tea Party members here like the idea of NYC seceding --it'll never happen, but let's pretend it did. OK, these people BELIEVE that now they won't be supporting NYC anymore, so there will be a surplus in tax revenue.

Uh-oh...why don't we have any money anymore? We dumped that welfare-riddled NYC...we should be rich now. Why is the state now bankrupt? Because the EVIDENCE showed that NYC and the surrounding counties are NET CONTRIBUTORS of tax revenue, while the rest of the state are NET RECEIVERS of tax revenue. Get rid of the contributors, and the rest of the state goes under.

Believing something to be true doesn't make it true, no matter how hard you believe it or how many people agree with you (for a very long time, many people believed the earth was flat...it didn't suddenly change shape when the prevailing belief changed). And that's the problem with the Tea Party. Their philosophies on how to make things better have no basis in evidence. They focus in on relatively small amounts of money given to things with which they disagree, and think that eliminating that will balance the budget. As a percentage of the whole budget, it's like thinking you'll be able to pay your mortgage with money saved from not buying gum. Believe it as much as you want, but that can't make numbers change.

 

[chickened]

Not all tax money collected by a municipal comes from its' residents or within its geographical area. in fact some cities rely heavily on interstate commerce taxes.
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You are confusing ideals with a perception of reality. He said "all our tax money goes to support NYC." I said "Actually, NYC pays the state $11 billion more each year than it takes in, and the difference goes to support upstate and western NY. Oh, and here's the evidence to prove that." He replies "I don't care what the evidence says, I believe NYC gets all our money."

That is not AT ALL the same as changing ideals. It's denying it's raining while standing out in the rain.

 

[AquaEyes]

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X2

Again, here is the issue:

First person says region A supports region B financially.

Second person says region B supports region A financially.

This is not something that is subjective -- they can't both be true. How to find out? Crunch numbers.

OK, numbers crunched for each year. Region B contributes $28 billion in tax revenue. Region A contributes $7 billion in tax revenue. Region B receives $17 billion in state funding. Region A receives $12 billion in state funding. Data presented to both people. First person says "I don't care...I still believe region A supports region B financially, despite evidence to the contrary."

Tell me how that relates to changing a person's political beliefs from Democrat to Republican.

 

[chickened]

Ever hear of psychological warfare? It defies logic all the time. One cannot believe something enough and make it true alone but if I experience something that you cannot explain or was not there to witness it does that make it untrue? Do not take this wrong but with age one learns that what you held dear as truth will change ... it does, just as much. At age 6 you may have believed in Santa Claus but now you do not, the same principle is at work when you are 35 compared to 50. Ask someone about this topic that is 80 and see what they say, I have.
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I don't dismiss the power of belief to affect people's behavior. However, if you make POLICY based on belief that CONTRADICTS EVIDENCE, then you're going to find out how wrong the belief was -- and so will everyone else, if your policy affects other people.

The Tea Party members here like the idea of NYC seceding --it'll never happen, but let's pretend it did. OK, these people BELIEVE that now they won't be supporting NYC anymore, so there will be a surplus in tax revenue.

Uh-oh...why don't we have any money anymore? We dumped that welfare-riddled NYC...we should be rich now. Why is the state now bankrupt? Because the EVIDENCE showed that NYC and the surrounding counties are NET CONTRIBUTORS of tax revenue, while the rest of the state are NET RECEIVERS of tax revenue. Get rid of the contributors, and the rest of the state goes under.

Believing something to be true doesn't make it true, no matter how hard you believe it or how many people agree with you (for a very long time, many people believed the earth was flat...it didn't suddenly change shape when the prevailing belief changed). And that's the problem with the Tea Party. Their philosophies on how to make things better have no basis in evidence. They focus in on relatively small amounts of money given to things with which they disagree, and think that eliminating that will balance the budget. As a percentage of the whole budget, it's like thinking you'll be able to pay your mortgage with money saved from not buying gum. Believe it as much as you want, but that can't make numbers change.

 

[AquaEyes]

Get back to me when you've read through both reports (34 and 94 pages) that took into account that and many other factors.....

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You are confusing ideals with a perception of reality. He said "all our tax money goes to support NYC." I said "Actually, NYC pays the state $11 billion more each year than it takes in, and the difference goes to support upstate and western NY. Oh, and here's the evidence to prove that." He replies "I don't care what the evidence says, I believe NYC gets all our money."

That is not AT ALL the same as changing ideals. It's denying it's raining while standing out in the rain.

 

[AquaEyes]

You're talking in circles. There is no psychological warfare in figuring out what counties pay more in taxes than others -- it's accounting. If you see the numbers in front of you but still say something that contradicts it, something is wrong.

Tell me...you own a business...do you make a profit based on if you "believe" you made a profit, or if your expenses are less than your revenue? When you do your taxes, do you fill out what you "believe" you made, or what your W2's say? If you "believe" you made $15k less last year than your W2's indicate, can you use that "belief" to get out of an audit?

This isn't about something that can't be proven -- it's about money collected and disbursed. Stop trying to relate this to religion. It has nothing to do with that.

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I don't dismiss the power of belief to affect people's behavior. However, if you make POLICY based on belief that CONTRADICTS EVIDENCE, then you're going to find out how wrong the belief was -- and so will everyone else, if your policy affects other people.

The Tea Party members here like the idea of NYC seceding --it'll never happen, but let's pretend it did. OK, these people BELIEVE that now they won't be supporting NYC anymore, so there will be a surplus in tax revenue.

Uh-oh...why don't we have any money anymore? We dumped that welfare-riddled NYC...we should be rich now. Why is the state now bankrupt? Because the EVIDENCE showed that NYC and the surrounding counties are NET CONTRIBUTORS of tax revenue, while the rest of the state are NET RECEIVERS of tax revenue. Get rid of the contributors, and the rest of the state goes under.

Believing something to be true doesn't make it true, no matter how hard you believe it or how many people agree with you (for a very long time, many people believed the earth was flat...it didn't suddenly change shape when the prevailing belief changed). And that's the problem with the Tea Party. Their philosophies on how to make things better have no basis in evidence. They focus in on relatively small amounts of money given to things with which they disagree, and think that eliminating that will balance the budget. As a percentage of the whole budget, it's like thinking you'll be able to pay your mortgage with money saved from not buying gum. Believe it as much as you want, but that can't make numbers change.

 

[chickened]

Doesn't matter I still won't' believe it

Lighten up AE you are going to blow a gasket. The guy feels he is going to be paying too much taxes that was his point he may have exaggerated the numbers or data but he still clings to that belief. People say things out of frustration like "I am going to kill him" now would you debate whether he was going to do it with a knife or a gun? or if he really was going to do it at all? Get back to me when you realize people do not always say what they mean or mean what they say. BTW a good accountant can make Bill Gates look poor, look behind the reason for the report it usually is swayed in a certain direction for a specific purpose.
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[Illia]

So, umm, someday we'll calm down and get back to topic right?

 

[AquaEyes]

I don't want people in public office who will look at revenue and expenditures and "believe" we are in the black when we are in the red. That's the point. Accounting should be math, not belief. When I was an accountant for a restaurant (that brought in about $100k gross a week), I'd be fired if I operated any other way.

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