Texas

[AllenK RGV]

yep! My grandfather use to say, 'a drunk Mexican riding a goat'!

So according to wikipedia.org that indigo snake is listed as a threatened species. Cool it was napping on my porch.

 

[AllenK RGV]

Ok this is like me following a Bavarian farmers directions now. What about the green barn door again and please speak German? Truly happened like I am going to spot a barn with green doors driving at night. I eventually got to where I was going without further Bavarian(bayrisch) assistance.

 

[AllenK RGV]

So I was trying to sleep on an air matress. Unfortunately the 70 pound Belgian Malinois thought it was a fun game to run in and jump up and down on it. He is such a derpy dog. DW and I can not sleep in the same bed any more she kicks and I snore someone else snores too but I won't mention names. Regardless a sleepless night is better than a knee to the kidney.

 

[AllenK RGV]

Ok so Beta is really looking like not my thing this morning. Sorry HOU this one is all yours. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/115514.shtml?gm_track#contents No longer tracking from Brownsville,

 

[electrycmonk]

So here we go again..... And the current grouping still looks like a 5 yr old grabbed a hand full of freshly boiled spegetti and threw it at the gulf map.

*Yes, a minority of models are starting to show a 'Harvey' pattern but, the strength isn't ------ I don't know what to say beyond that.

 

[007Sean]

The latest satellite loop, looks like it's split into 2 seperate systems? IR loop.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/08/1000x1000.jpg
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=gm&band=13&length=24

 

[007Sean]

Latest real time sat image. Big difference between an image 4 to 6 hours old versus real time! Looks like the Big Easy won't be spared this time? I think it will follow the path of the 'floater' this time....but 'what do I know?'

 

[electrycmonk]

Okay looking at the Band: 8- IR water vapor Upper loops the erratic lower stuff is similar to a geyser. Especially when you view the 96 hour and 150 hr loops. The 150hr loop shows at least 3 splits and the on you referenced @007Sean seems to be the 3rd or possible 4th "geyser-like burst up into the upper level."
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=08&length=150

Then you add to the crazy fact the center of the "Storm system" has seemed to stay basically in the same area of the Gulf for like 4 days now.
heres a cut-n-paste of the forecasted percentages of experiencing TS speed winds
HOU and Galveston have ~50-70% chance of it currently...


@Kiki not much chance of a hurricane to worry about at this point.
Rain? oh sure.
Wind? yup that too but, nothing to get flustered over just yet imho.

reason being the models are all a .... well, a mess.
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_22.gif

And This is their best guess:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/230146.shtml?cone#contents

 

[AllenK RGV]

I do feel for you guys. This one is a slow mover. I really hate slow moving storms. Satelite looks like it is horribly sheared so can't get too much strength. Wind shear maps support that as well. It is just riding the edge of favorable formation.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

 

[007Sean]

Hope they are wrong on this one @electrycmonk ...I'm right in the path to get the same thing we got during Harvey!
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/230146.shtml?cone#contents