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I think it's less a matter of offending than not including everyone -- unless "not being included" is considered offensive. If the term "Christmas" is everywhere, yet there are "belief rules" that must be obeyed in order to "properly" celebrate it, then saying "Merry Christmas" is wishing well only to those who follow the same "belief rules" for "properly" celebrating the holiday.
It's sort of like saying "I wish those of you who believe as I do a happy holiday" and saying nothing to anyone else.
I like to think of this time of year as the sort of universal "wish everyone well" time, so I prefer (in my own personal usage" to say "Happy Holidays." If Christmas is your holiday, then you are not excluded in my "wish everyone well" statement.
*Inhaling deeply* Merry-Christmas,Happy Yule, Happy Winter Solstice, Japanese New Year, Hannukkah, Las Posadas, St. Nicholas Day, Bodhi Day, Kwanza-
Are you happy yet? I could keep going if you aren't satisfied.
Really, people. Saying "Merry Christmas," in my book, translates into "I hope you have a good December 25th."