Most of the chicken expert books I've read are clear that a 50% hatch rate on shipped eggs is about right. So basically you can double the cost of any eggs you buy that are shipped. If you are buying on a site such as
ebay, or from direct sellers of hatching eggs, you will find that the folks who sell you eggs generally take no responsibility for the eggs once they deliver them to the post office. All of the risk is shifted to the buyer even though the buyer has no more control over the post office than the seller. The post office is consistently blamed for low hatch rates. Instead of "the computer did it," you get "the post office did it."
Additionally, many sellers of hatching eggs say they are "fertile." However, they cannot reliably tell you the eggs are actually fertile at the age of the eggs when shipped--assuming they are actually freshly laid. They are going by the fertility rate they experience on their farm in general, and they post a few testimonies from folks who amazingly got very high hatch rates. I've never seen any postings related to low hatch rates on the ads or average hatch rates for their shipped eggs. And if you contact them about a low hatch rate, they remind you they are not responsible for anything. And how do you prove the eggs were not fertile when shipped? Good luck on that one.
So far in my experience, I've had the following results:
Hatch 1: 10 eggs, 4 hatched (40% hatch rate)
Hatch 2: 16 eggs, 7 hatched (44%)
Hatch 3: 16 eggs, 8 hatched (50%)
Hatch 4: 4 eggs, none hatched (-0-%)
Hatch 5: 15 eggs, 10 hatched (67%)
All of the hatches were done in the same
Brinsea incubators--Minis and Maxi. Based on the last hatch, maybe the incubators are getting better.....
Hatch 3 and 5 were from the same seller. I think the higher hatch rates for these two batches could have been due in part to better packing by the seller. Eggs were individually wrapped around the circumferance with small cell bubble wrap, leaving the top and bottom open so the eggs could breathe. And then the eggs were packed pointy end down in a thick cocoon of shredded paper top, bottom, and sides. I have had lower hatch rates for eggs packed and shipped in conventional egg cartons and eggs shipped on their sides rather than pointy end down. Some sellers think shipping eggs on their sides is closer to "nature." but I have had more air sacs end up in the wrong place when shipped this way. Others may have had a different experience with these packing methods, but that's mine. My experience is 5 batches of shipped eggs; but I am an auditor who is always looking for condition, criteria, cause, and effect for everything.
Prior to venturing into the purchase of hatching eggs (because my hens were older and I had lost my roo) I had a nearly 100% hatch rate from my girls. So maybe I'm expecting too much. Also, my 5 surviving hens from my elderly, prior flock are a minimum of 7 years old and are still producing 1 to 3 eggs a day. So maybe I will need to adjust my laying expectations too...
Bottom line: If you buy shipped eggs, be prepared to accept the risks as the risks are all yours. And factor the low hatch rates into what you think is your cost per egg.
Priscilla