Coronavirus, Covid 19 Discussion and How It Has Affected Your Daily Life Chat Thread

[h2oratt]

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/andr.13209

Title of the article is "Covid-19 Vaccination BNT162b2 Temporarily Impairs Semen Concentration and Total Motile Count among Semen Donors"

In the paper, the authors say their research shows the impairment is temporary. I'm having trouble with their math.

Specifically, taking Table 2. If there is no significant change between T1 and T0 (as the paper says in words), when the sperm concentration is -14.5. And there is a significant decrease in the sperm concentration between T2 and T0 (as the paper says in words), when the change in sperm concentration is -15.4. Then why does the change in sperm concentration of -15.9 show no statistical significance (as the paper says in words)?

And, also Table 2. If there is no significant change between T0 and T1 (as the paper says in words), when the total motile count is -2%. And there is significant decrease from T0 to T2 when the total motile count is -22.1%. Then why is the change in total motility count of -19.4% from T0 to T3 not significant?

Actually, after I wrote the above it, I called someone who works with statistics all the time. He said, is because the confidence level (that 95% CI column) has both numbers negative for the T0 to T2 rows so there is a 95% confidence that the number really is a negative number. The T0 to T1 and the T0 to T3 rows have both negative and positive numbers so there is a statistical chance that actual reality is no change (zero) or more sperm or increased motile count (positive number)... they are 95% sure that the actual reality is between a 30% lower sperm concentration and a 1.7% higher sperm count. And they are 95% sure that the actual reality is between 35% fewer total motile sperm and 0.6% greater total motile sperm.

Edit to fix a typo

I can’t even follow this. I admire you math minded people.

 

[Ninjasquirrel]

I can’t even follow this. I admire you math minded people.

If this pandemic has taught us anything it's that numbers are scary

 

[saysfaa]

Lol. I am not math minded. I have to sort math-y things out deliberately and look up a lot of terms. I thought this paper was very poorly written. I ended up teasing the info out nearly line by line with lots of going back and forth.

But I do want to know what the research found.

If it helps... this is my "notes" of the abstract, semi-quoted and semi-paraphrased, with some parts skipped and with definitions and context from other sources added as I needed them to understand. Generally info in straight brackets [like this] is not from this paper. This a very rough version of notes.


https://www.stonybrookmedicine.edu/patientcare/urology/SemenAnalysis
Recent febrile illness … may affect development of new sperm for up to 3 months [this is any fever; nothing to do with covid or covid vaccine]
[febrile illness is illness with a fever]

Commonly used normal semen parameters [to put the differences in the study into perspective because a 12 x 10 to the sixth change means one thing if the normal is 20 x10 to the sixth and a different thing if the normal were something very different such 2000 x 10 to the sixth]:
Volume >2.0 ML normal volume is usually between 2 and 6 ml
Concentration >20x10 to the sixth/ML
Motility >50%

Motility: is the ability of sperm to move effectively (as in with adequate speed and direction)
normally, more than 50% of the sperm in a specimen are motile
Motile sperm is defined as the sperm in the specimen that scored at least 2 on a scale of 0 to 4; 0 being no movement and 4 being extremely fast forward movement. 2 is slow and undirected movement, 2+ is slow forward movement

End of info from stonybrook link

Study included 4 phases
T0 (T zero) is the pre-vaccination baseline control
T1 is sample provided between 15 and 45 days after vax completion
T2 is sample provided between 75 and 120 days after vax completion
T3 is sample provided over 150 after vax completion

Primary endpoints were semen parameters.

Three statistical analyses were conducted
1) generalized estimated equation model (wikipedia has a page)
2) first sample the first semen sample of each donor [in each phase]
3) samples’ mean of each donor per period were compared o T0

[mean = mathematical average; add up all the numbers and divide by the number of numbers]

Results
Analysis 1 (generalized estimated equation model)
Repetitive measurements revealed a 15.4% sperm concentration decrease at T2 compared to T0
and a total motile count reduction of 22.1% at T2 compared to T0.

Analysis 2 (first sample only)
Resulted in concentration reductions and total motile count reductions of first sample given at T2 compared to the first sample given at T0 for each donor.
The median decline was 12 million/ml in concentration and the median decline was 31 million motile spermatozoa.

[median= the middle value in a list ordered smallest to largest]

Analysis 3 (mean of all the samples from a given donor)
Resulted in concentration reductions and total motile count reductions of the mean of all samples for each donor at T2 compared to the mean of all samples for each donor at T1.
The median decline was 9.5x10 to the sixth in concentration and the median decline was 27.3 million motile spermatozoa.

T1 was not referenced in the results section.
T3 was referenced in the results section, “T3 evaluation demonstrated overall recovery. Semen volume and sperm motility were not impaired.” However, the numbers comparing T3 to any other stage were not given in the results section. The numbers of the results of all phases are given in the tables.

Discussion: This longitudinal study focused on Sperm Donors demonstrates selective temporary sperm concentration and Total Motility Count deterioration three months after vaccination followed by later recovery verified by diverse statistical analyses.

"Conclusions: Systemic immune response after [Pfizer covid vax] is a reasonable cause for transient semen concentration and Total Motility Count decline. Long-term prognosis remains good."

End of notes.

It says "long- term prognosis remains good" but the numbers given in the table 2 show 20% fewer sperm that can move effectively at the long-term sample as well as the intermediate-term sample.

 

[sourland]

"Conclusions: Systemic immune response after [Pfizer covid vax] is a reasonable cause for transient semen concentration and Total Motility Count decline. Long-term prognosis remains good."

I wonder what the impact of Covid infection is.

 

[Folly's place]

My understanding, from information a while ago, is that C-19 has negative effects on sperm. Don't have references, and I agree that the article posted about vaccination issues is___vague___ to be kind.
Mary

 

[NanaK]

Recent febrile illness … may affect development of new sperm for up to 3 months [this is any fever; nothing to do with covid or covid vaccine]
[febrile illness is illness with a fever]

Maybe you can find out and compare how other type of illnesses that cause systemic immune responses and other type vaccines compare in affecting sperm motility. This would give a wider range to draw your own personal conclusion from. I would think there are many things that could affect sperm and eggs as well. Sometimes it may be variable between individuals so look also at sample sizes in these studies, too.
Good luck! I hope you find the answers you seek.

 

[NanaK]

If the vaccine prevented covid, that might be relevant.

Well, could still be relevant as the vaccine and a covid infection causes an immune response.

 

[saysfaa]

Yes. Deleted because I need to think about it more. Busy day today.

 

[Hayden Goseek]

Wouldn't it great if we could start a group of scientist that could study these thing in real time and report useful, unbiased information. We could all pitch in a couple dollars each if they were working for our benefit. (sarcasm alert, in case your not sure.)

 

[saysfaa]

My son just called, his fiance is in the hospital because of heart issues. She is 20.