I've been watching FL hurricanes for 30, almost 40 of my 50 years, and the spaghetti maps for more than a decade. There's broad agreement for about 24, maybe 36 hours - then al bets are off. They are counting on a weak front to pick this thing up - a weak front already most of 48 hours delayed, and contrary to our experinece of the last two decades that the models seriously overstate the ability of fronts to steer a Cat 4 hurricane - which is what this is projected to be, when that weak front is supposed to pick it up.
As to why all the models say it will decrease in intensity from weak Cat 4 (or strong Cat 3) before making landfall??? My wife and I are scratching our head about that. Makes no sense to us. Gulf water temps don't account for it. Neither does the Gulf "shelf" off of Tampa Bay, which helps steer away from direct hits somehow, but has never decreased intensity that I can recall.