MJ's little flock

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BY Bob said:
Not to pile on but for everyone's reference. A normal vaccine process takes 15 years in order for it to prove effectiveness.
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Deep down I know covid is inviting us to be extremely creative in reconfiguring what we do. One of my chums is a cross benches politician who sees information I don't get to see, and we were out for dinner recently so I asked her about it and she put her face in her hands and shook her head. That one gesture told me to be as creative within my own professional expertise as I posdibly can be, and to be attentive to and suppirtive of anything other experts recommend, eg public policy economists are leveraging all their data and expertise to think of new ways to construct stability and they might as well be speaking Russian for all I know about economics but they won't throw us under the bus because that's not in their interest.

I think we're going to see a lot more hard lockdowns over the coming years as this thing mutates and outraces whatever partial vaccines we can throw at it until some immunologist somewhere has a eureka moment. It will get to the point of all online work being allowed but no F2F work. We may have to go to the shops on a schedule or something like that. It's going to be a long struggle. We need our friendships and we (humanity) need to stop bickering over silly things. This challenge invites us to support each other, day in, day out, for years.

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MaryJanet said:
Deep down I know covid is inviting us to be extremely creative in reconfiguring what we do. One of my chums is a cross benches politician who sees information I don't get to see, and we were out for dinner recently so I asked her about it and she put her face in her hands and shook her head. That one gesture told me to be as creative within my own professional expertise as I posdibly can be, and to be attentive to and suppirtive of anything other experts recommend, eg public policy economists are leveraging all their data and expertise to think of new ways to construct stability and they might as well be speaking Russian for all I know about economics but they won't throw us under the bus because that's not in their interest.

I think we're going to see a lot more hard lockdowns over the coming years as this thing mutates and outraces whatever partial vaccines we can throw at it until some immunologist somewhere has a eureka moment. It will get to the point of all online work being allowed but no F2F work. We may have to go to the shops on a schedule or something like that. It's going to be a long struggle. We need our friendships and we (humanity) need to stop bickering over silly things. This challenge invites us to support each other, day in, day out, for years.

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The love is for the picture. ;)
 
MaryJanet said:
I know SA Health is doing genomic testing on samples in order to trace the virus through the community. The strain we're avoiding (or not spreading) in this new lockdown is a fast little devil, incubating within a day, infectious for two. So a six day lockdown will be an effective measure if people comply.

Supermarkets will be open 24 hours (never in SA's history have we had all supermarkets open 24 hours). That's to allow for covid safe shopping. I'm allowed to leave my home once a day for groceries, covid testing, if I have a medical emergency, taking Peggy to Dr Mark etc, but some things are not allowed eg exercising outside, so I'm glad I had a beachwalk yesterday morning! Work is shut down completely, we're on fully paid leave. It's a surprise holiday and I'm determined to enjoy myself in spite of restrictions. I may do ALL my jigsaw puzzles or something like that.

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Take care MJ. Enjoy your surprise holiday!

Also, I don't recognise those chooks. Who is the white one with the brown throat and chest?
 
Q
Shadrach said:
Some sense in the madness.
I know you said some tests Bob but it is woth bearing in mind that some of the untested and uproven tests are not even managing a 50% hit rate. That's no better than chance.
If you apply some statistical analysis to the few test results there are their reliability isn't much past coin toss in many instances.
For those that are interested it is worth reading a bit on statistical analysis just to see what percentages are required for a particular level of doubt.
Unfortunately many of the journalists and the politicians who either do not have a decent grasp of science, or have a particular agenda to propmote are misleadinng the public.
My current favorite is the recent euphoric reporting of successful vaccine development. It takes years to gather enough data to judge how effective such vaccines are. Then there is the knotty problem of will they be effective at slowing Covid if a large percentage of the population don't take the vaccine. All assumes of course that the virus the vaccine is for doesn't mutate.
I could bang on for hours. Sorry people. I'll shut up now.
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Yep. Mutation happens, people. I am curious to see how the vaccines actually do. Having said that, two companies having promising results is better news than we’ve been seeing. I think it’s ok to be hopeful. It’s been a rough year.
 

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