Texas

[electrycmonk]

Coasties here is our disturbance in the Gulf..... just saying. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
@RUNuts @Kiki time to stock up, sorry to everyone I didn't tag.

Late edit: The first models are out I missed those:
View attachment 2169584

Well, I have both links as open tabs to stay easily "refreshable" as the week progresses. Will definitely check at breakfast given the official update is in about 2 hrs....

 

[electrycmonk]

And the NOAA update at 2AM upgraded to a 70% chance.....

As of Noon, it's now a 90% for both 2 & 5 day outlooks.

Just now (radar screenshot) the wind velocity and tracks are the white ghost-like lines, that is already a well defined "Low" rotation..... I'd almost venture a guess of Trop. Depression title by nightfall today CDT.


What say you @AllenK RGV ? Anyone else?

 

[AllenK RGV]

And the NOAA update at 2AM upgraded to a 70% chance.....

As of Noon, it's now a 90% for both 2 & 5 day outlooks.

Just now (radar screenshot) the wind velocity and tracks are the white ghost-like lines, that is already a well defined "Low" rotation..... I'd almost venture a guess of Trop. Depression title by nightfall today CDT.
View attachment 2171733

What say you @AllenK RGV ? Anyone else?

Upgraded again it is now named 3. So a Tropical Depression, and, yep, was expecting that as well.

 

[DaEpicChick]

Is that going to hit us?

 

[electrycmonk]

Is that going to hit us?

Hey There neighbor. I'm on the north side of Denton.

"We" are In a no worry status for at least the next 24 hrs. Once we see the development and them the storm models projections.... Time will tell if it's ahhh, ..... anything to be concerned over for us 'this far inland'.

I have stuff and friends in Galveston, so I'm little more alert and a meteorologist-like g33k so.... Yeah I'm fascinated by this aspect of nature.

I did some research in the physics dept...... Drawing comparison to galactic rotation's with gravity to that of hurricane's, tornadoes & mezocyclones.

Never got to finish it......

 

[electrycmonk]

Hey @AllenK RGV this is my free go-to radar app screenshot #2.
Feel like "armchair quarterbacking" with me on this system?

Knowing that it came from the Pacific and survived to reach "3" then what say you on the TD, TS & H1 stages?
My gut right now thinks
TD = before midnight CDT
TS = maybe ~noonish tomorrow
H1 = wed. Night? Maybe ... as I'm thinking this maybe is actually a bit premature as I should wait a good 24hrs from "3" to TD"
Status

 

[AllenK RGV]

Yup it is just a wait and see. Let the models firm up kind of thing and review your seasonal hurricane preparations type of deal. My crystal ball is broken atm.

My bet is only on it becoming a named system tomorrow afternoon, after that all those curly-Q moves could drive it back over the Yucatan to die, or not...

 

[Rikki9908]

Hello, I’m new to byc and someone gave me a link to find a thread for my state. I came across y’all and this post about the tropical depression, thanks! I had no idea it was out there! I live east of Houston

 

[AllenK RGV]

Hey There neighbor. I'm on the north side of Denton.

"We" are In a no worry status for at least the next 24 hrs. Once we see the development and them the storm models projections.... Time will tell if it's ahhh, ..... anything to be concerned over for us 'this far inland'.

I have stuff and friends in Galveston, so I'm little more alert and a meteorologist-like g33k so.... Yeah I'm fascinated by this aspect of nature.

I did some research in the physics dept...... Drawing comparison to galactic rotation's with gravity to that of hurricane's, tornadoes & mezocyclones.

Never got to finish it......

Your app looks great. I prefer putting my faith in the myriad of resources you can track on spagettimodels.com my two favorite individual links from there are http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-ti...l_colors&prod=natl&timespan=120hrs&anim=anigf and https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-71.66,28.89,1196 "windsofearth".

This system looks pretty big but barometric pressure, wind shear and other factors such as other high and low pressure systems will push it wherever it is going. If concerned about impacts locally though it is a next weekend thing if at all.

Final thoughts once this moves out of the Bay of Campeche the waters cool according to the data I saw there so shouldn't keep growing. Still even a stalled TD can cause incredible rainfall totals not to mention what Harvey did by stalling. I'm sure there will be some dramatic footage on the weather channel today from Yucatan, Belize and or Guatamala soon.

 

[Wolfie2]

South of Houston, on the coast, so I'm waqtching this! NWS is predicting (for now) to go a little east of us . So not wishing ill on any other place but keepin my fingers crossed,