Which are the rare breeds in highest demand now? Which ones will still maintain a high price tag in

[The Moonshiner]

What I am doing, is legwork.  I am asking direct questions to people about which breeds are the best performing at this time.  However, I did not think that it would be like asking a Geenie for the cure for cancer.  Additionally, I do not remember asking you anything.  You are the one who opened a thread on a forum and assumed that the question was pointed in your direction.  I had assumed that people would not be under the impression that providing me with information about which ones are doing better than others would make them feel like somehow their futures were at risk.  

There are dozens of breeds that appear to be doing pretty well, so as far as I can see I could go any number of routes and still do fine.  Where I am at in my boot wearing decision making process, I have it dialed down to about eight.  There are stock brokers who regularly perform with annual gains in the double digits.  They get there by doing more than just having opinions and guessing.  They get there through analysis and objective speculation.  There is a difference.  That is your gift from me.  One of the many mysterious "answers" to success.

However, to everyone else, although you have not answered my question directly, I do appreciate your insight.  Especially you PD-Riverman.  Although your responses have been discouraging, and accurate as far as I can see, I believe that at this point I have enough skin in the game that I can at least make a worthwhile side-gig out of it.  

I beg to differ.
You started a thread on a public forum. In doing so you are basically asking the questions to the forum members in which I am. So yes you did ask me.

You ever seen a stock broker get rich that didnt know stocks? Wonder how many of them go on forums asking for tips on the hottest stocks.

Anyways sounds like you have all the answers to the business side and a good size list of breeds going so go get rich and when you do you can come back and tell me "told you so"

 

[PD-Riverman]

PD-Riverman
Ive saw a few replies where youve mentioned hatching something like 6,000 chicks a year.
Curious how many eggs you set a week and your incubator or incubators capacity.
Looks like sportsman cabinet incubators in your pic. How many do you run.
Thanks

I got started hatching a few in a couple of Styrofoam, then I built the 2 in my picture(one is a hatcher)---I did look at a pic of a sportsman on line---lol. Then I set 96 the first week, 96 the second week moved some to the hatcher and set more---I kept growing. I bought 2 used cabinets at the auction--one was a Dickie and a home-made. I remember the first time I had 500 eggs incubating at one time---a little scary, then 700, then I got to 900---the most I have ever had at one time was 949 and I stayed there a couple weeks. I bought another used cabinet---a GQF for $250----I never used the GQF but it was ready if I needed it----things had started slowing some so I was dropping back to about 200 per week hatch---my last big hatch at that time was 233 out of 236 eggs. I played for close 2 years.

Then Bam----Bird-flu scare---I had 1232 chickens when the e-mail came from the state that we were probably going to get some bird-flu cases in my State and all Public selling would be stopped. My goal was 3000 to 4000 chickens--Had already started collecting things to do a big grow out house. I stopped all incubating---I started selling all grow outs, all breeds that I felt I did not need---I sold close 200 per week for 3 weeks before the owner of the Auction asked me what was going on----I was being quiet--trying to get my numbers down-----State next to me Shut down all public chicken selling---I managed to sell 950 in 6 weeks before my main auction shut down because he was afraid to re-new his lease, next closest auction closed soon after down.

Hardly no local were buying---I traveled 2 hours and sold about 200 more in 3 trips. I did not hardly hatch any in 2016---just layed low. I sold the GQF a few months ago---then 6 weeks ago a new Auction opened a hour away---I sold several hundred chicks with it then BAM again---more bird-flu scare---in Ten, KY, a small case in Georgia----Might be wrong but I am expecting the public Chicken sales to be shut down in my state soon----I just took about 100 out the hatcher yesterday, and a little over 100 more eggs in the incubator that goes in the hatcher Thursday----then I am shut down again---for a while----I am not going to hatch 100's and 100's and might not be able to sell them----I also got about 100 growing out--might go ahead and sell them. So Now----don't know what the future holds---I am not going to sell any equipment----just sit idle to see where this is going to go---play it by ear. I Loved "playing" with the chickens and hope to again.

Thought this---My story might be interesting to the OP being he has a interest in this.

 

[DocumentedPure]

Thank you Riverman. That was fascinating. You took the punches like a champ. I wish it had gone better for you and that the external factors had been kinder to you. However I do appreciate your time and insight.

 

[DocumentedPure]

How long were the NPIP shipping freezes due to the virus? Do they freeze all national and international shipping?

 

[donrae]

But I would like you to know the difference I see between me and just about every chicken hobbyist. What do you do when your chicken gets sick? Cross your fingers and hope it gets better a lot of the times? How advanced is the average chicken keepers poultry medicine cabinet? What does the lengths does the average person go to in order ensure comfortable and safe feed and environment? How often does the average keeper send off scat samples to labs, or have the health department come out and analyze for diseases?

I am not going to lie and say that my chickens are going to be free ranged. Or that ones with undesirable features will die of old age. But what I can guarantee you is that the money sign hovering over their heads is going to ensure a much higher quality of life for my chickens than your average Joe's will.

Okay, this just jumps out at me like crazy. Honestly, if your birds are getting sick and you need an "advanced" medicine cabinet to keep your "money sign" birds alive, why would anyone want to be buying your stock? I sure wouldn't, and would be very unhappy if I found out I'd paid high dollars to buy birds that need constant medication or coddling.

What do I do when a bird gets sick? Well, I don't have birds get sick to speak of, so really can't answer that. If you've got illness that often, especially with only 3 birds, there's something going on.

 

[PD-Riverman]

How long were the NPIP shipping freezes due to the virus? Do they freeze all national and international shipping?

If you are asking me----I never shipped nor bought shipped---so I had no concern with shipping and never checked. Here is what is happening in my area.


*3/27/17 -- Low-path AI (mild H7) – GA broiler breeders (Chattooga County) – found on routine testing of flock
3/22/17 – Low-path AI (mild H7) – AL broiler breeders (Lauderdale County) – found on routine testing of flock
3/22/17 – Low-path AI (mild H7N9) – AL broiler breeders (Cullman County) – found on routine testing of flock
3/21/17 – Low-path AI (mild H7N9) – AL broiler breeders (Pickens County) – found on routine testing of flock
3/20/17 – Low-path AI (mild H7N9) -- KY broiler breeders (Christian County) – found on routine testing of flock
3/16/17 -- High-path AI (H7N9) -- TN broiler breeders (Lincoln County) -- sick bird testing
3/15/17 – Low-path AI (mild H7) -- AL broiler breeders (Lauderdale County) – found in Quarantine Zone surveillance
3/15/17 – Low-path AI (*mild H7N9) – AL backyard flock (Madison County) – found in Quarantine Zone surveillance
3/15/17 – Low-path AI (mild H7N9) – AL backyard flock (Jackson County) – found on flea market surveillance
3/9/17 -- Low-path AI (mild H7N9) – TN broiler breeders (Giles County) – found on routine testing of flock
3/7/17 -- Low-path AI (mild H5N2) – WI commercial turkeys (Barron County) – different strain, sick bird testing (depression signs in flock)
3/5/17 -- High-Path AI (H7N9) – TN broiler breeders (Lincoln County) – sick bird testing (sudden increased mortality), North American wild bird lineage strain

Confirmed H7, Presumptive Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza in a Commercial Flock in Georgia​

A flock of chickens at a commercial poultry breeding operation located in Chattooga County has tested positive for H7, presumptive low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI). This is the first confirmation of avian influenza in domestic poultry in Georgia. Avian influenza does not pose a risk to the food supply, and no affected animals entered the food chain. The risk of human infection with avian influenza during poultry outbreaks is very low.
The virus was identified during routine pre-sale screening for the commercial facility and was confirmed as H7 avian influenza by the USDA National Veterinary Services Laboratory (NVSL) in Ames, Iowa. As a precaution the affected flock has been depopulated. Officials are testing and monitoring other flocks within the surveillance area and no other flocks have tested positive or experienced any clinical signs.
The announcement follows similar confirmations from Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee in recent weeks. The Georgia case is considered a presumptive low pathogenic avian influenza because the flock did not show any signs of illness. While LPAI is different from HPAI, control measures are under way as a precautionary measure. Wild birds are the source of the virus. Avian influenza virus strains often occur naturally in wild birds, and can infect wild migratory birds without causing illness.
“Poultry is the top sector of our number one industry, agriculture, and we are committed to protecting the livelihoods of the many farm families that are dependent on it,” said Georgia Commissioner of Agriculture Gary W. Black. “In order to successfully do that, it is imperative that we continue our efforts of extensive biosecurity.”
The official order prohibiting poultry exhibitions and the assembling of poultry to be sold issued by the state veterinarian’s office on March 16, 2017, remains in effect. The order prohibits all poultry exhibitions, sales at regional and county fairs, festivals, swap meets, live bird markets, flea markets, and auctions. The order also prohibits the concentration, collection or assembly of poultry of all types, including wild waterfowl from one or more premises for purposes of sale. Shipments of eggs or baby chicks from National Poultry Improvement Plan (NPIP), Avian Influenza Clean, approved facilities are not affected by this order.

 

[The Moonshiner]

PD-Riverman
Are your homemade ones set up just like a sportsman?
GQFs sell for around $600 give or take here. And I could buy the parts and build one myself for probably half or a little more.
Im going to need to be able to set more eggs this year and next so was thinking about how to expand. Was thinking better $ wise to build one instead of buying used. Then I decided to build big. Was thinking 750 to 900 egg.
Was just curious if you were maybe using something XL and homemade.

OP sorry for the bit of a highjack but knew you wouldnt mind since we're friends and all.

 

[PD-Riverman]

PD-Riverman
Are your homemade ones set up just like a sportsman?
GQFs sell for around $600 give or take here. And I could buy the parts and build one myself for probably half or a little more.
Im going to need to be able to set more eggs this year and next so was thinking about how to expand. Was thinking better $ wise to build one instead of buying used. Then I decided to build big. Was thinking 750 to 900 egg.
Was just curious if you were maybe using something XL and homemade.

OP sorry for the bit of a highjack but knew you wouldnt mind since we're friends and all.

Mine is basically like theirs except mine has a different electronic thermostat. I built my turner racks and all from metal I had on hand. My turner rack has Teflon bushins on the turning rods. I made my trays for the hatcher from metal I had. I have 4 trays and have hatched close 300 chicks at one hatch. I did make my incubator a slight bit wider so I could add a regular turner flat on the bottom inside so it will hold 335 eggs(I have a 47 egg turner). I Love the way they work and hatch and I would Not trade either for a brand new Sportsman or hatcher----no way. The lowest hatch rate I have ever had using the hatcher is 95% but that was only one time and I figured out that problem, the rest of the time its hatched 98 to 100% every hatch----It hatched every week for 17 months with no weeks off. I used several incubators but only this one hatcher. I do not hatch in any of the cabinet incubators---hatch only in the hatcher.

I am this way I do not want a bigger incubator---I would have to get a lot bigger than I was to even think I needed a bigger one. I had rather have 288 eggs per 3 cabinets than 864 in one 3 times as big. Unless you plan to sell them straight out the hatcher---you got to have brooders to put them in---it takes a lot of brooders to brood 100's and 100's per week---again unless you can sell them completely every week. But its what ever a man wants. I got a friend that has one that holds 1200 and its full this time a year, but he only hatches about 3 months out the year---he does not used brooders but I know he has some for back-up. Straight out it to his supplier every Monday morning----Not sure what he does like yesterday morning when the man he supplies had several hundred left from last week and he has 300 for this week???? Chick sales has dropped a lot here in the last couple weeks.

 

[mandelyn]

I'll tell you my method for breed selection... what I like! Chances are someone else will like them too. We're not going to be chasing fads. I like color in bird and eggs, and novelty sure... but at the end of the day it's about the "product"... eggs and meat. For example, the Legbars have fallen in price. But you can't beat their utility and novelty from what I've encountered thus far. Taking a line of them and breeding towards consistent stock is not going to cause a loss. Auto sexing at hatch, big blue eggs, neat coloration on the birds. I'm totally stuck on them even if prices fall further.

Same with Marans. LOVE the dark shell colors. Love the temperaments of the birds. Where Legbars can be flighty, the Marans are more sane. They're also big enough to be table birds. I've found them to be inconsistent depending on what lines you get, so we'll be extra picky on them.

We're trying out some others too that I've never had before. We did opt for the bantam Silver Laced Barnvelder when another breed we wanted was unavailable. They've proven to be resilient little birds so far. Feathers are coming in nicely. So what if their price drops, they're a good small sized utility bird or they aren't.

Anytime you invest into live goods you're potentially setting yourself up for failure. People do NOT like buying from poor conditions, so make sure the coops are light and airy, clean and smelling decent. Be sure the birds are in top condition. Be sure to stay on top of everything and you'll likely be fine. With you being out west, you may do better by volume in production birds unless you do NPIP and ship out rare types. We're near an urban area with a growing chicken fancy, so we can do alright with novelty layers. We're SOL on roosters, so that's where the dual purpose comes into play, and we'll for sure have to have an eye on egg output. But that makes the auto sexing breeds pretty much invaluable, since the first question from urban keepers is "Can I buy just females?" and with a lot of breeds I would have to retain them until gender was guaranteed.

My husband likes Spitzhabens, but I don't care for them. Too light to eat and not that great at laying. Novelty for sure. Not crazy about frizzled or silkie anything, or anything with a big head crest since they're pretty much hawk bait. Some of the game birds are neat, but they're typically flighty and lack that dual purpose utility.

They all have $ signs over their head, but what do you want out of your flock besides that? You might get stuck with them. You might make more than you can sell. You might miss the mark on what sells well in your market, and online sales may be poor without good documentation, NPIP, good pictures of good stock, and a good reputation.

You may also travel the world and finds breeds that aren't here yet, and be the first. Huge up front investment. You could develop a new breed and invest a ton of time into that. Maybe a lot of people will like it, and maybe not. You can go for volume on the tried and true breeds, while maintaining quality and genetic diversity within the flock. You could get into show stock and become one of the top 10 breeders in the US of them. You could go strictly ornamental and produce neat pheasants and peacocks, with neat aviary enclosures.

But there is no goose laying a golden egg, every option takes investment, time, consideration... at the end of the day you simply must care about it and make the best you can, and reach the right people at the right time so that you're not overwhelmed with unsold critters sucking up money and space.

If they get sick, as in something affecting the bulk of the flock, you must do the right thing and eradicate them all and start over. If survivors are carriers it's going to get spread around, and that's not good. You have to accept that potential loss of... all of them. It's the nature of live goods. They're not a product that can sit around in a warehouse until sold, lot's of risks.

My day job is with plants. Same concepts. Go for volume with a Petunia, or go for obscure and sell a handful of weird novelty trees for $100 each as tiny babies. Concerns over Boxwood blight, spider mites, aphids, white powdery mildew and other fungal things, weather havoc (fingers crossed for no May frost!), keeping everything watered just right for the variety, placing it all in just the right light conditions to avoid leggy plants or disease issues or outright rotting in the pot. It's all alive, and it all requires care. Sell it fast, sell it in top condition, and have a plan if an issue pops up. If the USDA comes by on a surprise visit and pulls a bunch of stuff for testing... now you have to take care of stuff that can't be sold until it's cleared. More complicated than poultry, for sure, but many commonalities since it's still live goods with a very limited shelf life.

Every critter I bring home is a potential breeder. But I watch them grow, I watch how they are, and I do not breed them until they have proven themselves to have merit. I've had a lot of dogs, and have so far not had ANY puppies. Not one female has made the cut, for one reason or another. I have 3 tiny pigs... no piglets. Not yet. Waiting and watching. First I need them to be full grown and true to size, no guessing. No promising buyers "Sure, they'll be 50 pounds or less" when the female was only 7 months old and no where near finished growing. I find that method to be so bogus. No, here is the mother, full grown, this is exactly what you're going to get. I have one full grown female, waiting on the male to mature. So far we're on the right track since I sourced them carefully.

I have Turkeys hatching now. I tried to sell hatching eggs locally but everyone wants started poults. If that's what the market wants, then that's what I'm going to make. Increased incubator and brooder space. Have a waiting list for when they hit 2 weeks of age. So far, so good. Excellent fertility.

I'm excited to see what the Twentse chickens are like. They're already the biggest in the brooder, calm and sane. The adult plumage is SO gorgeous! Time will tell just how big they get and how well they lay. They're not eating any more than the Marans do. No where near the appetite of a Brahma, for example. Those will eat out a big chunk of the feed bill. I've not heard a whole lot about the Twentse, and haven't ever seen them for sale in our area. We'll see what happens.

 

[dheltzel]

The best way to make a million dollars in this business is to start with 2 million.