Have been following the New Castles epidemic since last year and have had many thoughts, I really do think migratory birds can be vectors with all California being in the flight zone from Canada to Mexico in the Fall and back in the Spring. It has been stated that birds of the parrot family can carry this and unknown to many there are wild parrots that live and thrive in the San Francisco area and migrate South and return every year. I have a pecan tree which they stop at every year, make a lot of noise and eat a lot of nuts, then go. Fortunately, they have been and gone already this Spring. So far, everything has been well for me, I am located at the south end of the San Joaquin valley, also known as the Central Valley. My guess is that Mexico does nothing to monitor or contain this disease, so outbreaks there will inevitably spread to California due to traffic across the border (both human and poultry and migratory birds). I am thinking the best predictor of when it will be over might be to follow the history of the last outbreak in 2002. The last time I went to search the hatchery sites, all I went to had advisories that they were not selling/shipping any birds to the whole state of California. The local TSC has no baby chicks (though they did have some in February, I think). It seems like a bad year to have chickens, but I have been hit hard by some predators (an evil mutant fox/coyote thing) and I am going to incubate some eggs anyway, saved from my own birds. I am taking precautions, and keep separate shoes for home and going to town. This is creating a lot of stress in the lives of California chicken owners and hoping it will be over soon. Before it was over in 2002 it had spread to Arizona and I think maybe Texas.
