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Yes chicken math will probably get you. we starred with a premade coop for our first 12 chicks. I bought the extra run parts as wellso 4'x10'then an electric fence to surround it and give more run space. we used it for them until we build our first coop 8x12. We moved it into the run for new chick housing and have used it for chicks since. We build coop 2 last year, 10x16 and added to the run making 2 separate runs all enclosed. Current plan for spring of 16 is to take part of prefab run and use for part of quail pens and a two tier brooder. Should still have enough of the prefab run left for 3 chicks for integration. So if you have a prefab they can be handy but are not a good permanent coop in my opinion. Materials are thin and after 2 winters outside ours will need roof repair among other things.
I live in a region that can get cold, and my coop is un-insulated, and the walls are but a half inch thick. And, my coop is far more open, and ventilated than yours. We can get winter temps to zero (Not including any windchill) and the front of my coop is wide open, covered only with hardware cloth.
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