Texas

[AllenK RGV]

Well models have been really consistent on Laura. Impact seems to take it right up the Sabine River for a spell. Currently we have NOAA2 Mission #17 into LAURA just about to enter the storm I bet this one gets the bump up to hurricane status.

 

[007Sean]

Well models have been really consistent on Laura. Impact seems to take it right up the Sabine River for a spell. Currently we have NOAA2 Mission #17 into LAURA just about to enter the storm I bet this one gets the bump up to hurricane status.
View attachment 2305080

I don't see it...there isn't any steering winds to force it North. I think the 'eye' will hit somewhere between Port O'Conner to Corpus, if the upper atmosphere winds remain the same.

 

[AllenK RGV]

Whelp like everything else they were calling it is cat 1 by this current NOAA mission. The shear map is retreating back towards the Texas coast. I do trust the models and their consistency at this point they aren't all flakey like Marco was. Plus Marco is still a low pressure area for it to head towards. We will for sure know in 24-48 hours. Looks like a HOU Beaumont event now since current model runs have shifted a bit west from earlier though so you could still be right @007Sean the USAF will be heading in very soon too https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/


Later Edit I think I am error, the legend shows knots for windspeed, but this mission statistics never broke 70kts on the graphs. So 70mph as per the icons seems to be the actual deal.

 

[007Sean]

Whelp like everything else they were calling it is cat 1 by this current NOAA mission. The shear map is retreating back towards the Texas coast. I do trust the models and their consistency at this point they aren't all flakey like Marco was. Plus Marco is still a low pressure area for it to head towards. We will for sure know in 24-48 hours. Looks like a HOU Beaumont event now since current model runs have shifted a bit west from earlier though so you could still be right @007Sean the USAF will be heading in very soon too https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
View attachment 2305112

Later Edit I think I am error, the legend shows knots for windspeed, but this mission statistics never broke 70kts on the graphs. So 70mph as per the icons seems to be the actual deal.

There appears to be a low over the Arizona/New Mexico border?...counter-clockwise rotation in the cloud cover...it could influence the movement of Laura more westwardly than is thought? Idk, just my opinion. 24/48 hours will definitely 'tell the tell'. There is definitely no high to push her to the North or East but the Pacific air mass is moving along a line from northern Mexico towards the Texas coast...could steer it more towards the East, Houston/Beaumont area.

 

[007Sean]

The European model, which has been more accurate, shows her to move more westwardly. As of 7:15am, Laura has obtain CAT1 status. 75mph winds.

 

[AllenK RGV]

There the USAF shows 75mph even though the legend says knots.

 

[LovesChicks29]

yoink

 

[007Sean]

I like to look at GOES EAST full disk animation...you can tell more about the overall movement of the upper air masses and the overall factors influencing the movements of those air masses.

 

[electrycmonk]

/wake up yawning.... Well, morning guys, my Better-half sent me a text asking what I think about our gavleston house and sent me a picture from the official Galveston FB page....

So we talked and she wonder why the evac-order. My *WAG* was to minimize the covid-19-mare chances for folks if it turns ugly??
I see they are now forcasting the winds "at landfall" to be at >110 mph but, given the CCW flows the winds for the majority of the island would be from outta the North to NE & not the full strength stuff.

Thoughts? She's thinking about having one of our 20-something boys to go down with her to be down there to "ride out the storm" and do some legit inside only work......

 

[AllenK RGV]

yoink

Welcome to the Texas thread! Hope you don't mind us spammy coastals when there is a hurricane on the horizon.