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- #161
Mason Farm and Ranch
Songster
No. If I were testing for ALV, yes. But my focus is Marek's. Baicalin doesn't kill Marek's, it sends the virus to it's dormant state. An unvaccinated bird infected with Marek's, even in it's dormant state, should test positive.Have you picked your birds to test? I think I am too late to answer. I might have to agree that they may test all positive due to shedding.
However, if we do go with the 80% rate, then I will pick 3 birds at random to test. With 3 birds, if treatment is ineffective, there is
So if all three tests are negative, then you've been very successful.
- 0.2*0.2*0.2 = 0.008 ≈ 1% chance that ALL THREE tests are negative.
(The chance for exactly one positive test is about 10%, still pretty rare. So even if it came back with one positive test, you are still doing good.)
Because of this trial, I need the birds to test positive, but remain asymptomatic.
If they don't test positive, I'll have another hypothesis on my hands indicating Baicalin stops shedding and no way to test it.