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I will trust you to research this for us. I truly am interested.Interesting. It goes way back as a saying.
A quick consultation with the oracle at Google reveals that Shakespeare, hedged his bets on the topic in Venus & Adonis, 1593:
I don't have time to look for it now but I remember reading something in Nature or somewhere like that which said it is actually a good predictor because of something to do with atmospheric pressure.
