How late will you stay up ?

[cupman]

Was 2000 a typical election? No, it was uncommon and unlikely to repeat itself.

 

[hemet dennis]

Was 2000 a typical election? No, it was uncommon and unlikely to repeat itself.

So your saying it wont be close ?

 

[cupman]

The popular vote will be close.

 

[hemet dennis]

The popular vote will be close.

It could end up a tie in electoral votes. Then what ?

 

[cupman]

Anything could happen but I think the odds of that are slim to none. I have been following the numbers of this statistician named Nate Silver. He was a Major League Baseball number cruncher but he went over into politics during the 2008 election. He accurately predicted 49 out of 50 states in 2008, accurately predicted 35 out of 35 senate races in 2008 and accurately predicted 34 out of 36 senate races in 2010.(one of his wrong predictions was the write-in victory for Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.)

It doesn't mean he's always going to be right but he has the results to back up his predictions. He forecasts Obama winning 315 electorial votes to Mitt Romney's 222. In a day or so we will see how accurate he is.

 

[hemet dennis]

Anything could happen but I think the odds of that are slim to none. I have been following the numbers of this statistician named Nate Silver. He was a Major League Baseball number cruncher but he went over into politics during the 2008 election. He accurately predicted 49 out of 50 states in 2008, accurately predicted 35 out of 35 senate races in 2008 and accurately predicted 34 out of 36 senate races in 2010.

It doesn't mean he's always going to be right but he has the results to back up his predictions. He forecasts Obama winning 315 electorial votes to Mitt Romney's 222. In a day or so we will see how accurate he is.

Obama wont win by anything close to 90 electoral votes.
I think Romney wins Virginia and Florida and Ohio and probably Wisconsin.

 

[cupman]

I don't think Romney stands a chance in Ohio. Of all those listed I will agree with you on Florida possibly, even though the most recent polls have started to favor the president. It's anyone's guess at this point. I do question Romney's attempts in Pennsylvania. I guess we'll all make our own opinions but to me it seems like a last ditch effort... desperation.

 

[hemet dennis]

I don't think Romney stands a chance in Ohio. Of all those listed I will agree with you on Florida possibly, even though the most recent polls have started to favor the president. It's anyone's guess at this point. I do question Romney's attempts in Pennsylvania. I guess we'll all make our own opinions but to me it seems like a last ditch effort... desperation.

Well I'll bet you an egg that Romney gets at least 265 electoral votes.
Unless it's not allowed then forget the bet.

Rasmussen polling has been the most reliable and they have,
Romney at 267
Obama at 243
With Ohio and Wisconsin as a tie.

 

[mom'sfolly]

I like electoral vote.com, where they use info from all the major polling companies. They have Romney well under 265.

Obama wins, with a possibly Romney popular vote....I'm sticking with it. The only big questions I have are about people in storm affected areas getting to polls, and people being allowed to vote in certain areas. Florida had people in lines for early voting well after polls officially closed last night.

I voted last week...and yes I will probably stay up until it is call by more than one news agency.

 

[cupman]

Eh, I don't want to open a big can of worms with this but Rasmussen always favors conservative candidates, getting several elections wrong with their predictions. Rasmussen was on GWB's payroll in 2004. I'm just a little skeptical about their polls. But this probably isn't worth arguing in much length seeing as we are on the eve of the election.

I'm going to watch a movie and go to bed. We'll have our answers tomorrow and here's to hoping your prediction is wrong.