Basically what has happened over the last 50 years is the emergence of some strains of Marek’s that kill unvaccinated birds extremely fast and at a young age. This is in contrast to the more classical Marek’s, that I am sure we have all read about, where tumors develop in slightly older birds causing paralysis.
I couldn’t get a handle on this exactly but it seems this more virulent disease is particularly marked in broiler intense farming operations.
The conclusion of these phylogenetic modeling wonks was that the use of vaccines has impacted the evolution of the virus such that these more virulent strains have emerged.
There is no discussion about how widespread the more virulent strains are, but a lot of discussion in the references is about broiler operations.
the genetic complexity of the Marek’s virus made it impossible to actually match specific mutations with virulence.
This is very interesting and I appreciate your diving into it! I hope you had a good nap and have recovered!
I have heard of genetic modeling and estimating time frames from that. I do accept the thought that Marek's seems to have some virulent strains that appear to be more widespread than previously observed "outbreaks." I come away from your synopsis thinking that they have correlated (but not found causation) Marek's vaccine prevalence and increased prevalence of virulent strains, along with intense broiler operations. Is that your thought too?
Because if they can't match any mutation with a virulent strain, probably because the data is limited, then they don't know which ones to trace back and identify its origins? For instance whether it existed before the beginning of the study time frame and became more widespread through repeated huge flocks of broilers on the same dirt, or if it developed out of a mild strain after the beginning of the study time frame and again spread from there.
I'm not denying that it is possible at all, but I'd like to understand better the theory how it happens. I don't see the evolutionary point of becoming a really virulent strain while happily coexisting inside a living chicken that's been vaccinated, shedding virus all over the place and multiplying in numbers. Why would the more virulent strain prevail? As opposed to quickly killing some poor unvaccinated 6 week old broiler and all it's flock-mates, which works out to be an evolutionary dead end. But I think this point has been made? By you I think. I suppose the virus could get more virulent and the vaccinated chicken wouldn't be affected, up to a point? Maybe there is another evolutionary through-line somewhere, like in the soil, perhaps?
Queenie's untended and hungry tribe, before people came and split them up and Queenie hid and wasn't caught. This was when I unsuccessfully tried to corral them all and get them to someone who was going to take them. I let them in, out and around the dog crate and couldn't see how to not panic anyone in collecting them. But I think part of them went to at least a good home, a family with kids. The rooster was magnificent, particularly his colorful legs, which I wish I'd gotten a picture of: pale yellow, blue and red.